Over the past weekend, Qatar made headlines by releasing eight Indian nationals who had been detained on espionage charges, all of whom were former members of the Indian Navy. The arrest of these individuals dates back to August 2022 when Doha accused them of divulging sensitive information about their work with the Qatar-based company Dahra Global to Israel.
While the specific details of the case remain undisclosed, analysts speculate that the suspicion arose due to Dahra Global's involvement in advising the Qatari government on the procurement of Italian submarines. This led authorities to suspect that the eight Indian nationals might have shared information about Qatar's submarine program with Israeli intelligence.
The situation escalated when a Qatari court sentenced the eight individuals to death in October 2023. In response, the Ministry of External Affairs in India expressed shock at the verdict and vowed to address the matter with Qatari authorities.
The recent release of these prisoners marks the culmination of India's persistent efforts to secure their freedom, following a decision by a Qatari court to commute their death sentences late last year.
This unfolding saga, while resembling the plot of a spy thriller, has unfolded against the backdrop of significant shifts in India's Middle East policy, particularly concerning its relationship with Israel.
During the onset of the Gaza conflict in October, India swiftly expressed solidarity with Israel, while maintaining its consistent support for a two-state solution. However, as Israel's military operation in Gaza prolonged, New Delhi's stance evolved.
In November 2023, India endorsed a United Nations resolution denouncing Israeli settlements in the West Bank, followed by similar support for a ceasefire resolution in December.
While India's pivot suggests a flexible approach to its Israel policy, it does not signal abandonment of its longstanding ties with Israel, nor does it align completely with the pro-Israel stance often associated with allies like the United States. Against the backdrop of India's dispute with Qatar, this adaptability is not entirely unexpected.
The India-Qatar rift underscores the sensitivity in Middle Eastern nations, particularly within the Arab world, to the dynamics between India and Israel, concerning military collaboration.
At its core, the timing of India's policy shift on Israel and the subsequent release of the prisoners suggests a complex interplay of diplomatic manoeuvres. Qatar's involvement, as a host to senior Hamas officials, hints at the intertwining of India's stance on the Gaza conflict with efforts to resolve the dispute between Doha and New Delhi.
Regardless of the interpretation, the episode underscores the significance of India's relationship with Israel and its potential ramifications on engagements with other regional stakeholders.
This also marks a notable shift in India's Middle Eastern policy. While key allies such as Iran have typically urged India to contribute to peace efforts in Palestine, they have not explicitly linked India's ties with Israel to strained relations between Tehran and New Delhi.
Despite Qatar's relatively modest stature as an ally in the region, the lessons drawn from this episode are valuable. India has been fortunate that its close partnerships with both Israel and Iran have not triggered significant opposition from other regional players.
However, Indian diplomats must recognise that this situation is an anomaly rather than the norm. Qatar's stance underscores the complexity of regional dynamics, highlighting the challenge of balancing relationships with various actors.
This complexity presents a dilemma for India. Qatar, like other regional allies, holds strategic importance, making it difficult for India to disregard its ties. Moreover, Iran, a crucial partner in India's regional infrastructure initiatives, has advocated for Qatar's inclusion in India's plans for the region.
With limited alternatives to Iran's cooperation currently available to India, engaging constructively with Qatar appears to be the pragmatic choice for New Delhi.
The sentiment also extends to security cooperation domain, where Iran has expressed interest in expanding naval collaboration among Qatar, the Gulf states, and India to establish a regional defence initiative.
Amid the Indian Navy's heightened focus on maritime stability in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Persian Gulf, India cannot risk estranging former naval allies in the region.
Besides economic and strategic endeavours, India shares substantial people-to-people ties with Qatar that are challenging to sever. With 7,50,000 Indian nationals residing and working in Qatar, and many more across the Gulf states, India cannot afford to alienate any of these countries without risking the livelihoods of millions of expatriates.
Looking ahead, Indian officials must be increasingly mindful of the complexities in their relationship with both Israel and other Middle Eastern nations. While maintaining positive ties with all parties is feasible, ignoring such complexities could expose Indian interests and citizens to significant vulnerabilities.