The dynamic between China and Japan has long been described as a "cold peace," marked by tensions that have led to a significant anti-China sentiment among the Japanese public. This has, in turn, strengthened the Japan-U.S. alliance, a relationship that took on new significance during Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s recent state visit to the United States on April 10.

In contrast, economic ties between Japan and China remain robust, with Japanese companies relying on China while China sees Japan as a crucial market. However, the situation with India tells a different story. Recent conflicts, notably over territories like Ladakh, Sikkim, and indirectly, Arunachal Pradesh, have escalated tensions between India and China since 2020. This has included fatal clashes between soldiers, extensive military mobilisation, and infrastructure development along the disputed border.

Even routine visits by Indian leaders to areas like Arunachal Pradesh, historically part of India but contested by China, spark strong reactions from Beijing. China consistently asserts its claim over these regions, disregarding historical agreements like the McMahon Line established in 1914.

This has led to a strained relationship best described as a "hot peace" between India and China. Similar to Japan, public sentiment in India has soured towards China, prompting New Delhi to diversify its international partnerships. India has increasingly turned towards the United States, France, and other nations like Israel to modernise its military capabilities, moving away from its traditional reliance on Russian weaponry.

Relations between China and India have maintained a delicate balance, never completely collapsing despite ongoing tensions. India has implemented measures to mitigate risks associated with China, including banning Chinese involvement in ports and rail construction, prohibiting Chinese apps, excluding Chinese telecom companies from Indian procurement, and rejecting significant automobile investments from BYD and Great Wall Motors. However, these actions have not extended to the broader trade and investment aspects of the relationship.

Bilateral trade between the two nations surpassed $136 billion in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, resulting in a substantial and growing trade deficit of $100 billion for India. Interestingly, while Indian exports have declined, China's exports to India have continued to increase. Companies like BYD have found a market in India for products they cannot produce locally.

Indian authorities have indicated openness to Chinese investments, suggesting at the January 2024 Davos summit that this receptivity could grow if border tensions ease. However, the potential long-term benefits for either country remain unclear. Chinese perspectives often depict India as an unwelcoming environment for investment, citing complexities in doing business there. These sentiments are echoed by Chinese experts and publications like the Global Times, framing India as a challenging terrain for foreign investment.

China's assertive actions along three border fronts have prompted India to strengthen its quasi-alliance with the United States and forge a robust strategic partnership with France, particularly evident in reduced conditions on weapon procurement. This shift is not unique to India but reflects a broader trend across Asia influenced by Xi Jinping's China, which appears unfazed by developments like the Quad, AUKUS, or European Indo-Pacific strategies sidelining China.

Xi's strategy seems focused on undermining democratic resolve gradually, prioritising long-term influence over immediate power balances. China's recent 7.2% increase in defence spending, amidst a slower real economy, underscores its commitment to military expansion, evident in its growing naval capabilities and strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and Djibouti.

For India, the border situation poses critical challenges, compounded by China's tactics of creating irreversible facts through deceptive manoeuvres and consolidations. Despite vulnerabilities, especially post-March 2020, India avoided deeper military setbacks, thanks to Xi's calculated restraint, mindful of potential political ramifications for India's leadership.

India's response involves bolstering its defence capabilities through domestic production and Western procurement, alongside maintaining ties with Russia. Foreign Minister Jaishankar's concept of "multi-alignment" reflects this nuanced approach, seeking Western support while keeping avenues open for engagement with Russia and potentially China, if diplomatic opportunities arise.

The evolving India-France relationship, emphasising "strategic autonomy" and equilibrium, aligns with India's diplomatic strategy, navigating regional challenges while preserving historical principles of non-alignment.

Multi-alignment not only safeguards India's influence in the Global South but also highlights nuanced diplomatic strategies amid global conflicts. While many nations view the Russia-Ukraine war as a European affair, garnering direct support over Himalayan border disputes proves challenging for India. Instead, India prioritises strategic partnerships based on tangible agreements, notably engaging in key global issues like Gaza and the Red Sea while distancing from certain vocal allies to preserve autonomy.

The Biden administration's recent declaration supporting India's territorial integrity in Arunachal Pradesh signifies a shift towards collective containment of China's aggression among Asian allies. Despite scepticism about the enduring nature of such statements, this move bolsters India's diplomatic standing amidst regional challenges, especially crucial given the approaching national elections.

India's evolving ties with the European Union reflect shared concerns over economic security, diversification of supply chains, and potential disruptions posed by China's military assertiveness. Converting this shared risk assessment into actionable opportunities remains a pivotal focus in EU-India relations, highlighting the evolving dynamics in global diplomacy amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.

In conclusion, the relationship between India and China navigates a delicate balance amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. This "hot peace" characterised by strained sentiments and military posturing has prompted both nations to recalibrate their diplomatic strategies.

While public sentiment in India has turned against China, leading to diversified international partnerships, bilateral trade and investment between the two nations continue to grow despite challenges.

India's multi-alignment approach, bolstered by strategic partnerships with the United States, France, and other allies, aims to safeguard its interests while navigating complex global conflicts. As both nations assert their influence regionally and globally, the evolving dynamics underscore the challenges and opportunities in contemporary international relations.