Since the Ukraine-Russian conflict began, the one region has been a flash point in the escalating crisis is Donbas, which hinges on land borders and strategic influence to both the countries.

In a televised address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow has recognised the independence of two Moscow-backed breakaway enclaves or separatist entities in the eastern Ukraine, i.e. Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.

In a dangerous gambit, the Russian President also signed decrees ordering the deployment of Russian troops into the region for “peacekeeping” that defies the international law and risks a deadly military confrontation. The formal recognition marks a considerable escalation that signals an end to the seven-year peace deal known as the Minsk Agreements. 

A UN spokesperson, through a statement said that Secretary-General António Guterres is "greatly concerned" by the Russia's decision on the status of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 

The US strongly condemned the move, terming the recognition as an 'attack on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity', saying the decision was "complete rejection'' of Russia's commitments under the Minsk Agreements, and violation of Kremlin's commitment to diplomacy.

The Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are two quasi-state republics ruled by separatists who broke away from Ukraine in the aftermath of the 2014 coup d'etat, which toppled a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv.

When the new pro-west government came into power, Kyiv moved thousands of troops to the Donbas region to crush the separatist movements which displaced more than a million people in the region. The military operation launched by Kyiv is known under the name “Anti-Terrorist Operation” (ATO) and its operational zone initially foresaw three eastern provinces of the country – Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv – with the latter one being excluded from the list in September 2014. 

The crisis escalated in April, 2014 when pro-Russia rebels began seizing territory (with Russia supporting them through hybrid warfare) in the region. Consequently, in matter of just one month, the rebels in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions held a referendum to declare independence from Ukraine. The two self-declared republics, backed by Kremlin, unleashed militias consisting of former military personnel and civilian volunteers to halt the advance of Ukrainian forces. Donbas region, as one of the country’s industrial heartlands, carries a crucial significance for Ukraine and Russia.

Why Donbas is a Flash Point?

The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces that comprise the Donbas region carry a geopolitical as well as economic significance for both Ukraine and Russia. The Donbas region, before the war, was known as an industrial powerhouse because of its heavy mining and steel-producing capacity, as well as encompassing large coal reserves. Donbas is a coalfield that constitutes 5 percent of Ukrainian territory, and extends to the Russian territories to the east. It composes the fourth-largest coalfield in Europe with extractable reserves estimated at around 10 billion tons. Donbas is a money-making region as it is inhabited by only 10 percent of the country’s population, and contributes 20 percent of the Ukrainian GDP and quarter of country’s exports gets generated from the Land of Donbas. 

The economic system of the south of Russia has always been deeply integrated with the adjacent provinces of south-eastern Ukraine, in that regards, the economic significance for Russia should also be considered. For instance, numerous Russian space – and defense – oriented monopolies rely on the supply of raw materials from the companies in south-eastern Ukraine. The region produces special steel for the tanks of the Russian Armed Forces and the majority of the engines of Russian helicopters are produced in Zaporizhia (a city in SE Ukraine). 

The geopolitical importance of Donbas is another reason for Moscow’s engagement in the region. As discussed in previous article, any signs of Kyiv’s inclination towards the EU and NATO is security threat to the Kremlin as it considers Ukraine under its privileged sphere of influence and/or interests.

Ukraine has been perceived under such a category known as the “near abroad” or post-Soviet space that Russia is determined to safeguard at any cost from western influence and aims to prevent or counterbalance any kind of intrusion from West in those countries.

Moreover, Russia sees itself morally responsible for “protecting” Russian speaking populations beyond its borders, and Donbas, despite being a part of Ukraine, is mainly populated by Russian speakers; In 2013, 74.9% of population (around 4.4 million people) in Donetsk Oblast identified their first language Russian while in Luhansk Oblast (with the population of 2.7 million people), the numbers were around 69%.

In this regard, Russia claims the responsibility of protecting the people living in the region based on the demographic engineering of the region that has been significant factor in convincing the Russian domestic audience. 

Minsk Agreements

In the September 2014, with an aim of stabilising the conflict in south-eastern Ukraine, following the large-scale fighting and violence where Russia-backed separatists seized swaths of territory in eastern Ukraine, a package of documents known as the Minsk Agreements was introduced by the representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and by the Russian-backed separatist leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky with the mediation of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format.

It was a memorandum on a peace plan regarding the conflict in Donbas where both sides – Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists – agreed upon nine points including the creation of a buffer zone. However, the agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides.

The following February, the signatories reconvened to sign a successor agreement, which started to be referred to as Minsk II agreements. This was a 13-point document backed by the United Nations Security Council which made it binding and its fulfilment became obligatory for the peaceful resolution of conflict. The agreement was discussed about at a summit held at the city’s Independence Palace mediated by French president Francois Hollande and German chancellor Angela Merkel. The summit was attended by Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko. Among the conditions envisaged by Minsk-2 was a withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line, aimed at creating a 50-kilometer-wide safe zone, while the OSCE was authorized to monitor this process. In addition, it contained amendments to the constitution of Ukraine aimed at giving special status to the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. However, the provisions under the agreement have not been implemented because of the ‘Minsk Conundrum’. 

What is Minsk Conundrum?

The Ukraine interprets it as that Minsk II allows Kyiv to first re-establish full control over Donbas, that means withdrawal of Russian-backed mercenaries, then occupy the Russia-Ukraine border followed by a limited devolution of power to the rebels i.e., formation of autonomous regions.

While Russia sees it as an agreement where Ukraine has to grant the Russia-backed rebels in Donbas comprehensive autonomy and representation in the central Government followed by the Russia handing over the international border to Ukraine. Thus, the Minsk 2 agreement has been rightly criticised for being too hastily drafted, ambiguous and contradictory, making it difficult to implement.

Ukraine fears the balkanisation of the country if two autonomous regions is being created as it could have domino effect over other regions which will subsequently result into the mass protests all over the country.

This was exactly what President Putin was conspiring to achieve in the Ukraine i.e., a regime change, favourable to Kremlin that does not wishes to fulfil foolish objectives like becoming a member of NATO or EU.

In Ukraine, even less consequential moves have led to riots, and Kremlin exploits that position. For instance, Ukraine’s parliament took steps to recognise local self-government in Donbass as different from the rest of Ukraine in 2016. This is perceived by Ukrainians as an attempt to federalise Ukraine, leading to riots outside the Ukrainian parliament which injured dozens of law enforcement officers and killed four.

Seeing the President Zelensky’s urge to join NATO in past few years and NATO on its borders, Kremlin wanted to have leverage over Kyiv, and that is why Russia started the narrative of protection of the Russian minority and people who speaks Russian language and their culture. In the crux, it all comes down to security of Russia and its geopolitical position in Eurasia.