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7 months ago

The truth of Delhi election?

Manish Sisodia's (Education Minister) winning margin from Patparganj AC ~ 3200 votes

Amantullah Khan winning margin from Okhla AC (Shaheen Bagh is a part of this AC) ~ 73000 votes

Honourable Mentions:-

Winning margins of AAP's candidates from the following seats

  1. Mustafabad (This seat was 1 of the 3 where BJP won last time) ~ 21,000
  2. Ballimaran ~ 36,000
  3. Seelampur ~ 37,000
  4. Matia Mahal ~ 50,000
  5. New Delhi (Kejriwal's seat) ~ 22,000
  6. Kalkaji ( Atishi's seat) ~ 11,000

Notice the difference in margin of winning among the above mentioned seats.

Moreover, Delhi's polls saw a decline of 5% in the total votes polled - This has happened first time since 1998

  • 1998 ~ 49% votes polled
  • 2003 ~ 53% votes polled
  • 2008 ~ 58% votes polled
  • 2013 ~ 66% votes polled
  • 2015 ~ 67% votes polled
  • 2020 ~ 62% votes polled

The polling percentage was on a continual rise since 1998, why has it decline this year?

Had people really voted for development (or freebies), I think that polling percentage would have increased further.

All Im trying to say here that AAP has been the biggest beneficiary of the perceived religious divide.

Now the question is, with seasoned campaigners like Amit Shah, and Modi in the team, have BJP really gone for such a tactic that costed them the election?

But there is something worth noting, and that is the playing field has been levelled. After winning the Delhi election 3 times in a row, Kejriwal can now portray himself (and his party) as a national leader (party).

Data Source : ECI and Wikipedia

.7 months ago

Hi can you also elaborate on winning margin of other seats as well? 

.7 months ago

You make all the valid points which AAP needs to think and work upon, except for that 5% drop. It has been studied worldwide that when people are satisfied by their govts, voter percenage tends to drop. In other words, higher voter turnout in most cases indicate a wave of anti-incumbency.

.7 months ago

if not bcz of the developmental work or freebies, why has AAP won the election?

.7 months ago

The reasons for AAP getting such a heavy mandate are:-

Vote Bank politics based on religion and community - AAP has blamed BJP to play it but has ended up doing the same. The seats I mentioned in the parent comment are all muslim majority seats. AAP has polarised muslims to vote for it. They claim that they have won bcz of the works done in education and health sector, then how come Sisodia (eduction minster) has won by such a terrible margin?

Lack of a CM face in BJP's camp - According to my understanding, there is elitism in Delhi when it comes to choosing a leader. Moreover, it's evident from the TV/Youtube interviews that Manoj Tiwari can't even hold a conversation. BJP has to move away from playing Modi card in every election and find suitable regional leaders.

Congress' dismal performance - There was no three way contest, it was just AAP vs BJP. When there is a three way contest, one party's [BJP] performance banks on the performance of other party [Congress]. Since, congress was nowhere in the picture and failed to take back its vote share from AAP, BJP has suffered. We follow first-past-the-post voting system and not Absolute majority (securing more than 50% of votes) voting system.

Developmental work and freebies - For sure they had a part to play in the verdict, but thinking that AAP's whole campaign was based on it is just foolishness.

Anti-CAA movement - Much like Congress, AAP had also based their political campaign on its anti CAA stance but they were smart enough to shield this stance behind the word done by them in the past 5 years.

Im not taking anything away from AAP, but one thing is for sure is that they have no higher moral ground. They have learned the game and are stepping up to it.

.7 months ago

I agree...people don't see any hope in congress...Congress has lost both trust and respect of the public... BJP is in the line too...people are realising that the party they voted for in 2014 has proved to be worse than Congress...Modi's face and oratory is losing its charm...

In delhi elections AAP reaped the benefit of this.

In Haryana elections, Dushyant Chautala's party got the benefit though the "chanakya" played his trick. In Maharashtra NCP was the example. 

People are looking for other options. They want to move ahead of Congress and BJP.

.7 months ago

This is fedralism at work. 

.7 months ago

could you explain how is that federalism at work?

.7 months ago

True... In my opinion this is the beginning of true federalism in India, where we will see more role of states in developing policies...Unlike earlier where centre used to dictate the policies and follow a top down approach..but now we are slowly moving towards federalism....no longer can a party at centre impose it's policies on states, states cooperation will be required going into the future..

.7 months ago

True federalism is a dangerous recipe for a country like India or say the Union of India

.7 months ago

Furthermore, why has AAP's vote share has declined from 54% to 53%, and that of BJP has increased from 32% to 38%?

This election had nothing, or maybe very little, to do with the developmental work or freebies.