Several surveys and opinion polls have showed AAP as the front runner to secure a majority in the Delhi Assembly Election 2020. The mandate of the people seems to be going in one way, but some factors like having a strong Chief Ministerial candidate, dedicated voters, electors’ intent to have different leaders at the state and national level, and the silent majority will somewhat have a vital impact on the final result.
Silent majority refers to the electors who support CAA and NRC, but do not express their support.
A - AAP is confident that people of the capital will elect it for a second term because of the pro-public work done in past 5 years. Cheaper electricity, free water supply, strengthening of health sector, and improved education services definitely put AAP as favourites. Mr. Kejriwal has already proved his mettle as CM. Electors’ intent to have different ruling parties at the state and national levels is also a positive sign for AAP. The factors not favouring AAP are the silent majority and Congress’ ability to take back its dedicated vote share.
B - BJP has never secured less than 32% of the votes in any Delhi assembly election thanks to a dedicated set of voters. The silent majority must account for a large portion of this set, but if that is not the case, then BJP can expect an increase in the vote share. BJP has not announced a CM candidate yet. Mr. Tiwary is in front of the line, but he is not perceived as the best choice to be elected as the CM. Therefore, how BJP will fare in these elections rest on the shoulders of Congress. If INC manages to take back their vote share, then it would benefit BJP and hurt AAP.
C – Congress is going as an underdog to these elections. Its hopes lies on the fact that it finished the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Delhi at second place with 22.5% of the votes polled, one place ahead of AAP (18% vote share). Moreover, Congress’ comeback in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharastra, and Jharkhand will give impetus to the party workers to work tirelessly. In INC’s case, the non-silent majority can play a major role as it has seamlessly opposed CAA and NRC. Congress had lost its dedicated vote share to AAP from 40% in 2008 to 24.5% in 2013 to a mere 9% in 2015. After the death of former CM Mrs. Dikshit, INC also lacks a leader who can be portrayed as CM face.
So, it all comes down to whether Congress can take back its dedicated vote share from AAP, and can pitch for a hung assembly or play a king maker, perhaps?