Roadmap 2030: UK commits to India’s Indo-Pacific vision

Navjit Singh | Updated: May 10, 2021, 5:55 PM

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Roadmap 2030: UK commits to India’s Indo-Pacific vision.

Amidst the disastrous second wave of Coronavirus in India where the healthcare system is literally paralysed, and people are dying due to the lack of oxygen, the domestic situation is gloomy, but on the diplomatic front, India is pulling strings in its favour as more than 40 countries are sending medical aid to save the lives of Indian citizens.

Meanwhile, PM Modi and his British counterpart Boris Johnson during India-UK virtual summit have launched an ambitious ‘Roadmap 2030’ for the future of Indo-UK relations that will elevate the bilateral relations to ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’.

The two vibrant democracies as well as leading economies of the world, India and Britain will cooperate for the next ten years in the realms of defence, health, climate change, and counter-terrorism etc.

The United Kingdom released a new Integrated Foreign and Defence Review this year. The Integrated Review is a comprehensive articulation of the UK’s national, security, defence, and foreign policies. UK PM Boris Johnson termed this year’s review as the “biggest review of UK’s foreign, defence, security, and development policy since the end of the Cold War.”

The big idea that came out from the review is that UK is committing itself to the grand scheme of Indo-Pacific security to enhance its strategic and diplomatic relationship with regional countries, and to employ resources to uphold & promote an open international order that includes free and open Indo-pacific.

Indo-Pacific “Tilt” of the United Kingdom?

Roadmap 2030: UK commits to India’s Indo-Pacific vision

The UK used to create an Indo-pacific strategy until 1965, when it withdrew from east of Suez in 1968, and abandoned its military bases in Southeast Asian countries of Singapore and Malaysia to preserve the balance of power against what was predicted to be a growing Chinese force. The growing need of resources compelled the UK to shift its focus against Soviet threat in the Euro-Atlantic theatre, and the Indo-pacific region has been neglected by successive governments even after the disintegration of the USSR.

The review released in 2015 contains the section on Asia-Pacific, but deeply hidden in a section called ‘Allies, Partners, and Global Management’. This indicates that the Indo-Pacific was not even a theatre for contestation for Britain lest mentioning in their integrated review.

Back then, London was emphasising on strengthening its relations with China for an obvious reason i.e. to attract Chinese inflows of investment, given that China became the world's largest exporter and second largest economy of the world. The David Cameroon Government had laid out a red-carpet for China’s leader Xi Jinping at Buckingham Palace for the full state visit, declaring the ‘Golden Era’ of UK-China relations.

At the time, London was very much aware of Beijing’s actions in the South-China Sea just a year ago in 2014, and an intrusion in the sovereignty of littoral countries, but it overlooked the contradiction that the UK is the custodian of liberal based-rule world order, second to the US.

In 2016, UK chose to leave the European Union and the single market which forced it to diversify its options and strengthen the trading relationships with countries beyond the EU, and the most obvious region that contains dynamic emerging economies was Indo-Pacific.

Few months after the referendum result, Boris Johnson, the then Foreign Secretary, decried the policy of disengagement in east of Suez, and stated the UK’s desire to reverse the policy and became “active and deeply committed to the region”. He also emphasised on improving trade and regional security.

The shift can be understood from the fact that the rise of China was now evident due to its aggressive moves in the South China Sea, and the authoritarian use of its Belt and Road Initiative to gain advantages in the geo-political sphere which would alter the balance of power not just in the region, but on the global stage.

The reappraisal of relations between the UK and China has been prompted by the realisation that these economic ties can no longer be separated from security interests.

Trump election into the White House marked the beginning of new era where China will be held accountable for its malicious activities directly contradicting the rules-based order; China’s treatment of Australians and South Koreans illustrated how Beijing deals with any country when they do not fall into its line; intrusion in India’s borders in Himalayas infringing the territorial sovereignty in the territory falsely claimed by PRC; China’s repressive activities in Hong Kong, its ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy, and its treatment of Uyghur Muslims have provoked the realisation that China’s predicted political liberalisation will not materialise.

These are signs of crumbling rules-based order where international institutions cease to mean anything, and common resources remain no more free and open, credits to China.

UK’s principal ally US made the Indo-pacific theatre the priority. This was initiated by Trump administration, and continued in the present by the Biden administration, which have coalesced to create an impetus for the UK to recognise the geo-political importance of a free and open Indo-pacific to global stability & prosperity, and adopt a clear Indo-pacific strategy.

Last month’s integrated review shed some light on the UK’s Indo-pacific strategy.

The review not only identified China as UK’s ‘systemic competitor’, but also maintained that the UK will establish ‘a greater and more persistent presence than any other European country’ in Indo-pacific region.

The review’s vision for Britain’s role in collective security is bold and decisive, and aims to build on the country's strategic means & wherewithal to underwrite the open international order. It also claims that British discursive, diplomatic, and military assets will be deployed more frequently than in the past. A fact which is complements the essence of the Roadmap 2030.

Roadmap 2030: UK commits to India’s Indo-Pacific vision

India’s Indo-Pacific

The ‘Confluence of the Two Seas’ speech by the then Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, to the Indian Parliament in 2007 initiated the Indo-policy discussions in New Delhi, but soon hit the speed-breaker when Australia, in order to maintain its wedding with China, pulled out from first strategic dialogue of ‘Quadrilateral’.

A decade later when Quad rejuvenated, India had already created an Indo-pacific division within the Military of External Affairs (MEA), announced its vision for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) known as SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) in Mauritius whose vision was that India would safeguard its mainland & islands, and defend its interests along with maintaining a secure, safe, and stable environment in the IOR against the harsh reality of emerging unstable maritime environment.

India has demonstrated that it is a reliable and capable ‘net maritime security provider’ in the IOR by upholding the International Court of Justice’s ruling against the India’s interests in 2014, reinvigorating the life into BIMSTEC – a group of littoral countries of Indo-Pacific, conducting first edition of AUSINDEX – naval exercise between Australian and Indian navies in Bay of Bengal, and recently first Quad naval exercise in Malabar.

Approximately 90 percent of both Indian trade (by volume), and India’s oil imports pass through the area. India’s strategic community has been disconcerted with the China’s aggression in Himalayas in the North, and String of Pearls from Gwadar to Chittagong ports owned by Chinese military, masking behind the “commercial” activities. These factors give enough reasons to develop the Indo-pacific strategy, and cooperate with like-minded countries, and United Kingdom to expand its feet into the region.

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Also read - South Korea, a front runner for Quad+? 

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Constraints?

India is the largest nation and the most powerful military power in the Indian Ocean region, but Indian Navy, which is the leader on Indo-Pacific defence, is under-resourced in comparison to Indian Army and Air force. Since independence, large focus has been remained on spending in land-based security domain, neglecting the naval and coast guard modernisation.

Another constraint in successfully implementing India’s Indo-pacific policy on ground is the accusation that ‘India is too slow’ due to its understaffed MEA and obstructionist bureaucracy. Policies related to shipping gets final nod from Ministry of Shipping only after going through the MEA and then be vetted by national security.

Other than that, there is India’s ‘strategic autonomy’ which more often than not becomes the balancing act at every point, and shy away from taking bold decisions that complicates the decision-making process.

The United Kingdom is not a great power anymore in any sphere – diplomatic, military, or economy – and it has lost its sphere of influence in the Indo-pacific since it left in 1968. The British people also does not agree with this low-intensity ‘Pivot of Asia’ by the United Kingdom due to multiple reasons such as why waste resources abroad when poverty is at highest level in the country and social services is in shambles, that too amidst the on-going pandemic.

Moreover, the UK does not even lie on the Pacific Rim. Limited assets in the region such as one island named Diego Garcia which has rented out to the Americans, a jungle training centre in Brunei, there are some touch points such as Sembawang wharf in Singapore, Duqm port in Oman is being fashioned with UK money to receive aircraft carriers, but they hardly amount to a magnetic force.

Overcoming?

Recent formalisation of ‘Quad’, upgrading the relationship with Australia to ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ in June 2020, extending invitation of Malabar exercise to Australian Navy along with former partners US and Japan making its first Quad military exercise, manufacturing vaccines for Indo-pacific nations under Quad vaccine diplomacy, supply-chain resilience initiative with Japan and Australia to build alternative to Chinese supply chain, signing four foundational defence agreements with Washington – last one being signed in October 2020 are some of the positive steps taken by the Indian administration to overcome any shortcoming in its grand plan to promote Indo-Pacific region.

The UK recognises the importance of free and open Indo-pacific, and it knows that China is the single biggest threat to the current world order and to the region which houses half the population of the world.

The amount of trade passing through that area will increase many-folds in coming years that will create more complexities with the security and defence perception. The regional instability will definitely affect the United Kingdom in future, if not tomorrow, so why not jump-in today to safeguard the values propounded by itself until it gets too late.

The UK has already made some attempts in that direction by planning to deploy strategic assets in the region, commencing with sending the Queen Elizabeth Carrier Strike Group later this year in its maiden voyage from Atlantic to Pacific via Indian Ocean.

With naval facilities in Bahrain, Oman, and Singapore, and reciprocal logistical agreements with Japan — soon with India too, as well as high levels of interoperability with US forces, the UK is well-prepared.

As the Chinese influence in the region is in the ascendant, and most concerned countries are ‘Quad’ nations, the door is open for the UK to closely work on defence and security partnerships in the Indo-pacific.

It might also seek to join the India-France-Australia trilateral, and possibly play a larger role within groupings such as the ‘Quad Plus’. On defence industrial cooperation, the UK signed an agreement with Australia to develop a new class of frigate last year, and is looking to develop a new Government-to-Government framework to boost defence procurement with India at a time when New Delhi is seeking to expand the capabilities of its armed forces.

Conclusion

Both countries have developed their Indo-pacific policies, but also have certain constraints regarding their implementation which would only be overcome by mutual co-operation. This collaboration will be strengthened by the announcement of India-UK Roadmap. 

The Roadmap is of significance in solidification of defence relationship between the two countries, especially in light of the UK’s declaration that it will “pursue deeper engagement in the Indo-Pacific”, and sees India as a “key pillar” in this endeavour.

India, too, has been keen to shore up support from like-minded countries to safeguard its national interests, and bolster its territorial and regional security. Britain is actively working on rethinking its place in the world, the obvious area of engagement is Indo-pacific. Hence, the UK’s foray into the Indo-Pacific is sure to be warmly welcomed by India.

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